The 2026 domestic box office is off to a flyer. Through the first eleven days of the year, the market has already generated roughly $327 million. That is a significant 23 percent jump compared to the same window in 2025. This particular weekend is expected to settle around the $100 million mark, representing a healthy 25 percent increase over last year. Leading the charge, as expected, is James Cameron’s latest epic from 20th Century Studios.
Avatar 3 Remains the Market Leader
Avatar: Fire and Ash continues to serve as the foundation for January ticket sales. While it is not quite matching the domestic pace of its predecessor (currently running about 34 percent behind The Way of Water), the threequel still commanded the top spot for its fourth consecutive week. It earned $21.3 million over the weekend, bringing its cumulative domestic total to an anticipated $342.6 million by the end of the Monday holiday. Even if it is not a record-shattering titan at home, it remains the “alpha male” of the marketplace, particularly when considering its massive global footprint and continued dominance in premium formats like Imax and 3D.
A Scuffle for Second Place
Behind the blue giants of Pandora, a tight race emerged between new entries and steady holdovers. Paramount and 18Hz’s horror offering, Primate, landed in second place with a debut of $11.3 million. The R-rated genre piece, directed by Johannes Roberts, drew a largely young and male crowd (59 percent in the 18 to 34 demographic). It received a B- CinemaScore, which is fairly standard for the genre, though PostTrak exits showed a lukewarm 50 percent definite recommend.
Right on its heels was the Lionsgate thriller The Housemaid. In its fourth weekend, the Paul Feig directed film starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried held strong with $11.2 million. The movie is on a fast track to cross the $100 million domestic milestone by the upcoming Friday, proving that star-driven thrillers still have significant legs in the winter months.
Gerard Butler and the Migration of Greenland 2
Lionsgate also saw the debut of Greenland 2: Migration, which landed at the lower end of expectations with $8.5 million. This follows other recent Gerard Butler projects like Plane and Den of Thieves: Pantera. While Greenland 2 cost $90 million to produce as an international co-production, Lionsgate’s domestic risk was limited to a $10 million acquisition. Like Primate, this sequel also earned a B- CinemaScore. Interestingly, the film is over-indexing heavily in the Western United States, with a third of its total gross coming from that region compared to the usual 23 percent market average.
Milestones for A24 and Sony
One of the weekend’s most notable success stories is Marty Supreme. The A24 title, starring Timothee Chalamet, earned $7.6 million in its fourth week, bringing its total to $70.1 million. This puts it past the domestic total of Civil War, making it the second-highest grossing film in A24’s history. It now needs only about $7 million more to dethrone the multi-Oscar winner Everything Everywhere All at Once as the distributor’s all-time domestic champion.
Meanwhile, Sony’s Anaconda has officially joined the $100 million club. On Saturday, the comedy passed the century mark at the global box office. With $54.2 million stateside and another $51.2 million from international territories, the film is a certified hit relative to its production costs.
Awards Season Momentum: Hamnet and More
Across the pond, Focus Features is seeing strong returns for Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet. The period drama earned $4.2 million in its UK opening, the best January Friday for a drama in that region since 1917 debuted in 2020. With six Golden Globe nominations pending, the film currently sits at $17.1 million globally.
In the domestic specialty market, Angel Studios released the political war drama I Was a Stranger. While it landed outside the top ten with $1.2 million from 1,400 sites, it secured the best critical reception among newcomers with an A- CinemaScore. It is currently playing best with older, faith-based audiences in the South and Midwest.
Top Ten Domestic Estimates:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th) – $21.3M (Wk 4); Total: $342.6M
- Primate (Paramount) – $11.3M (Wk 1)
- The Housemaid (Lionsgate) – $11.2M (Wk 4); Total: $94.1M
- Zootopia 2 (Disney) – $10.1M (Wk 7); Total: $378.8M
- Greenland 2: Migration (Lionsgate) – $8.5M (Wk 1)
- Marty Supreme (A24) – $7.6M (Wk 4); Total: $70.1M
- Anaconda (Sony) – $5.1M (Wk 3); Total: $54.2M
- SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (Par) – $3.8M (Wk 4); Total: $63.6M
- David (Angel Studios) – $3.08M (Wk 4); Total: $75.1M
- Song Sung Blue (Focus) – $3M (Wk 3); Total: $31.1M
Focus Features’ Song Sung Blue remains a contender as we move into the heart of the awards season. Despite a $30 million production cost, the film has reached $40.7 million globally, and Kate Hudson’s Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress in a Musical is expected to provide further momentum in the coming weeks.
As we look toward the MLK holiday weekend, the industry is optimistic that 2026 will maintain this early momentum. With Avatar still providing a steady roux for the box office stew and several mid-range hits finding their footing, January is proving to be much more than a dumping ground for forgotten films.
